US President Joe Biden’s administration had worked to keep tensions in the Middle East under control through quiet diplomacy with Iran. This wager was destroyed by Hamas’ huge attack on Israel on Saturday.
The clerical leadership of Iran publicly backs the Islamist insurgents who rule the blockaded, impoverished Gaza Strip and applauds the covert operation that dealt Israel its biggest blow in decades.
The Biden administration has engaged in cautious talks with Iranian officials, mostly taking place out of public view in Gulf Arab states, and reached an agreement last month that freed five Americans.
While making limited headway on the key issue of Iran’s nuclear program, US officials have alluded to tacit understandings with Tehran to turn down the temperature.
Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security advisor, told a September 27 event that Iranian-backed attacks in Iraq have stopped “for now” and pointed to a de facto truce in war-ravaged Yemen, where Tehran backs Huthi rebels.
“The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades,” Sullivan said, while cautioning that the situation could change and listing Iran’s nuclear program and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as festering issues.
Less than two weeks later, Hamas surprised Israel with an attack, forcing US diplomats to scramble to try and stop the violence from spreading throughout the region.
Biden has been under fire from the rival Republican Party over the violence, with the Republican Party citing the agreement to release inmates that called for the transfer of $6 billion in Iranian oil income that had been blocked in South Korea to an account in Qatar.
There is no evidence the money went to Hamas. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said “not a single dollar” has been dispensed and that the funds are restricted to humanitarian purchases.
But beyond the money, some experts said the offensive showed the limitations of Biden’s approach with Iran.
“The deal with Iran was not just about prisoner release but establishing some kind of process that could potentially de-escalate the conflict between the two states,” said Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.
“I have to say, I see no indications that Iranians are actually interested in de-escalating,” he said.
