The demographic consequences of COVID-19

Demographic consequences

Dr. Ubaid, the writer of the article

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a respiratory tract infection caused by a newly emergent coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, that was first recognized in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. Almost every country of the world has been affected by COVID-19 and WHO has declared it as a global pandemic.

As of April 7th, we have 164 positive cases and 17 deaths due to COVID-19 in Bangladesh. The first case was identified in the first week of March and we have passed one month with two large scale urban-rural movements. According to mobile phone companies, more than 10 million mobile phone users have moved out of Dhaka city and surrounding areas. The number of positive cases identified until today in a population of 168 million population where 40 percent live in urban areas generated many questions.

HOW BANGLADESH CASE IS COMPARED TO OTHER COUNTRIES PARTICULARLY SOUTH ASIAN COUNTRIES?

With a 1.1 percent population growth rate resulting from 2.7 million births and 0.8 million deaths, we are adding approximately 1.9 million persons per year in Bangladesh. This number will be gradually decreasing over the next 30 years reaching less than 100,000 per year resulting total population of around 200 million.

During the next 15 years, less than 2 million people will be entering the labor force if we consider 50 percent female labor force participation. In addition, due to internal migration, an additional 60 percent of people will be living in urban areas.

Considering the above conditions, how should we plan our future actions both in the economic and health sectors?  If we look at the global COVID-19 scenario particularly South Asia, the present situation in Bangladesh is better than expected. It could be due to the early steps taken by the government and also the participation of local communities in enforcing the social distance approach in rural areas.

In several localities, as soon as it was known that the virus is being imported from other countries some measures were taken locally to isolate the return migrants, particularly from Italy. Critics will say strict measures were not taken and the government was not prepared due to a lack of co-ordination. I will not disagree but considering our past experience, the steps taken this time are remarkable.

Map of Bangladesh

I am not observing any indication of large-scale community transmission from the information provided by local media and local administration. For example, a large number of people from the Sylhet division reside outside Bangladesh and during the winter season they come to Bangladesh, but we have identified only 2 cases in the Sylhet division till today.

Similarly, Chittagong is another example. With approximately half of the USA population, Bangladesh is doing remarkably well in combating COVID-19 in terms of absolute numbers.

Let us think about how to recover from this crisis. The most important is to ensure that Boro rice harvesting is done properly as this season contributes 60 percent of our total rice production. In addition, we must harvest and store potatoes properly.

In both cases, we need a large number of persons to complete the process within the specified time. In the past, it has been observed that due to a shortage of manpower the cultivation was not done on time. Currently, we have a golden opportunity to utilize the people who have move to their villages from urban areas.

This could be a turning point for the rural economy if we are able to encourage them to stay back with their families and get involved in the rural sector. Local administration with the help of NGOs could easily develop a medium-term plan to assist this returnee. For example, more than 60 percent of rickshaw pullers in Dhaka city do not bring their families with them and they go home every three to four months and spend a few weeks with their families.

If we can identify income-generating activities for them in their localities, I am sure a large number of them will prefer to stay back with their families. Similarly, the involvement of the returnees in poultry and fishing sectors will bring a new dimension in the rural economy. Instead of going for a high tech solution, let us try to utilize tested approaches and try to overcome the current crisis.


The writer of this article, Dr. Ubaidur Rob is the Country Director of Population Council in Bangladesh.


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