Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is facing mounting pressure and uncertainty today, Monday, July 21, 2025, after his ruling coalition suffered a disastrous loss of its upper house majority in Sunday’s elections. The setback comes as Japan prepares for new, painful US tariffs set to take effect on August 1.
National broadcaster NHK reported that the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has largely governed Japan since 1955, and its coalition partner Komeito, needed to secure 50 seats in the 248-seat upper house to retain their majority. However, they fell three seats short, securing only 47. This result marks the first time since the LDP’s founding in 1955 that its coalition has lost majorities in both chambers of parliament, having already lost control of the more powerful lower house in October.
Voters, angered by persistent inflation and rising living costs, turned to other parties, most notably the “Japanese first” Sanseito. This far-right, anti-globalist party made strong gains, echoing the agenda of populist movements seen elsewhere in the world.
Despite the significant electoral blow, Ishiba indicated his intention to remain in office. When asked late Sunday if he would step down, Ishiba told local media, “That’s right.” He further emphasized to another channel that “the deadline of (US) tariffs is coming on August 1. Until then we have to do our best with our body and soul.” Jiji Press reported that Ishiba is expected to inform a meeting of senior LDP figures on Monday that he will stay on.
The defeat severely weakens Ishiba’s government, which now holds a minority in both houses of the Diet, Japan’s parliament. This situation will make it significantly more challenging to pass legislation and could lead to political deadlock. The looming 25% “reciprocal” tariffs on all Japanese products, announced by US President Donald Trump and set to begin August 1 if no trade deal is reached, add another layer of pressure. Trump has publicly criticized Japan for not opening its markets sufficiently to US goods.
Should Ishiba ultimately be forced to resign, the question of his successor remains unclear, especially given the government’s newfound reliance on opposition support to govern effectively. Hidehiro Yamamoto, a politics and sociology professor at the University of Tsukuba, commented to AFP, “Ishiba may be replaced by someone else, but it’s not clear who will be the successor.”
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