Dhaka needs to cope with new situation in Myanmar border, experts 

Today, academics, security experts, and former diplomats urged cooperation with the Arakan Army (AA), which currently controls over 80 percent of Rakhine State, including the 271-kilometer border between Bangladesh and Myanmar.

They were speaking at the Bangladesh Institute of Peace and Security Studies’ (BIPSS) policy discussion on “Rakhine after the Fall of Maungdaw: Implications for Bangladesh and the Region” at a local hotel.

East-West University Assistant Professor Parvez Karim Abbasi, former Defense Attach to Myanmar and former Ambassador to Libya Major General (retd) Md Shahidul Haque, and BIPSS President Major General (retd) A N M Muniruzzaman moderated the conversation.

“I would say it’s high time to engage with the Arakan Army, diplomatically also, because this is a standard procedure in many cases, but we should also keep our military options open,” said Abbasi.

He recommended that Dhaka look into all informal avenues for communication if it is unable to get in touch with a non-state player like the Arakan Army directly.

Abbasi cautioned that the Arakan Army’s hold over Rakhine would make the northeastern provinces of India more vulnerable to insurrection.

The government of Bangladesh should develop a clear plan to deal with the complicated situation in Rakhine, according to Major General (retd) Muniruzzaman.
 
“If we don’t establish contact with the Arakan Army in time… Rakhine is not landlocked and there is already a process of establishing external contacts through maritime routes,” he cautioned.

Referring to India’s approach, Muniruzzaman noted that while New Delhi has historically maintained close ties with Myanmar’s junta, it appears to be recalibrating its strategy to engage with the Arakan Army in light of Rakhine’s shifting dynamics.

Major General (retd) Haque described engaging with the Arakan Army as a potential “win-win situation” for Bangladesh, benefiting not only security but also economic interests. 

He observed that the Arakan Army’s dominance in Rakhine has created a complex situation for India, which could present a strategic opportunity for Bangladesh.

“This is the opportunity for us… for the first time, we are in the driver’s seat, especially in negotiating our interests with India,” he said.

Last week, in Thailand, Foreign Adviser Touhid Hossain urged Myanmar to address ongoing border and Rakhine issues, reiterating that Dhaka cannot engage with non-state actors such as the Arakan Army.

“I informed Myanmar that the border is no longer under their control. It is now controlled by non-state actors like the Arakan Army. As a state, we cannot engage with them. Myanmar must find a way to resolve the issues related to the border and Rakhine,” Hossain told reporters in Dhaka after attending an informal consultation on Myanmar.

The Arakan Army’s growing influence and new reality in Rakhine has implications for Bangladesh in border management and raised fears of a potential new influx of displaced Rohingyas.