The World commerce Organization stated on Wednesday that after an unanticipated dip in 2023, commerce could recover this year. However, it cautioned that uncertainties in economic policies, geopolitical concerns, and regional conflicts might potentially cloud the outlook. In its annual trade forecast, the WTO disclosed that world trade volumes unexpectedly declined by 1.2 percent in 2023. WTO Chief Economist Ralph Ossa told AFP that the drop was “mainly due to the worse-than-expected performance of Europe,” with inflation and persistently high energy prices hurting demand for manufactured products. Germany’s GDP shrank by 0.3 percent during the last quarter of 2018, while the eurozone economy remained stagnant.
However, a resurgence in international trade for products is already underway, partly due to a deceleration in inflation.
According to the WTO prediction, the world economy would expand by 2.6 percent this year and 2.7 percent in 2025, maintaining a modest growth rate over the next two years.
It expects merchandise trade volumes to increase by 2.6 percent in 2024, and to expand by 3.3 percent next year. The 2024 forecast was lower than the 3.3-percent hike the WTO predicted for the year last October.
“We are making progress towards global trade recovery,” WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said in a statement, stressing though that it was “imperative that we mitigate risks like geopolitical strife and trade fragmentation”.
