The warming El Nino weather phenomenon could return later this year as its cooling opposite La Nina fades away, the United Nations said Tuesday.
The UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said the recent, weak La Nina was expected to give way to neutral conditions, which could then swing into El Nino before the end of 2026.
La Nina is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon that cools surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It brings changes in winds, pressure and rainfall patterns.
The WMO said there was a 60-percent chance of neutral conditions during the three-month window from March to May, with a 30-percent chance of La Nina conditions, and El Nino at a 10-percent probability.
There is a 70-percent chance of neutral conditions during April-June.
In May-July, the chance of neutral conditions drops back to 60 percent, with the chances of El Nino at 40 percent.
“The WMO community will be carefully monitoring conditions in the coming months to inform decision-making,” said Celeste Saulo, who heads the UN’s weather and climate agency.
“The most recent El Nino, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” the WMO secretary-general said.
El Nino contributed to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the all-time high.
