A senior World Trade Organization official has cautioned that the Middle East conflict’s disruptions to fertilizer supplies represent a twin danger to global food security through scarcity and high costs.
Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, obstructing a crucial oil, gas, and fertilizer transit route.
The disruption has sparked several warnings about the impact on agricultural production, as a third of the world’s fertilizers typically pass through the strait.
“Fertilisers are the number one issue of concern today. If there is no more fertiliser, there is an impact on quantities but also on prices,” WTO Deputy Director-General Jean-Marie Paugam told AFP in an interview in Yaounde.
“The effect compounds the following year: harvests shrink and prices rise.”
The Gulf’s ample supplies of natural gas, a key ingredient in artificial fertilisers, have made the region a major manufacturer.
But production has been severely impeded by the war, with some major facilities forced to shut down.
Major food exporters such as India, Thailand and Brazil depend on the Gulf for urea, a nitrogen-based fertiliser, making them vulnerable.
Because the war is only a few weeks old, there is currently no fertiliser shortage, Paugam said.
“But if fertilisers from the Gulf do not circulate, we will feel a direct impact on supplies to major producer countries just as planting seasons begin for the crops that will be harvested next year,” he said.
“If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for three months, the impact will be significant.”
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