After claiming “very good” discussions with Tehran, US President Donald Trump abruptly put a halt to strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure on Monday, causing oil prices to plummet and European stock markets to rise in erratic trade.
Following Trump’s remarks on his Truth Social platform, which contrasted sharply with his menacing remarks over the weekend, crude futures fell more than 14%.
However, after Iran denied that talks had taken place, they withdrew and saw a decline in trade of about 8%.
“We need to wait for more clarity,” UBS commodities analyst Giovanni Staunovo told AFP, as European gas prices declined four percent.
Asian and European stock markets had kicked off the new week with sharp losses. However following Asia’s close and Trump’s update, European equities rallied. All three of Wall Street’s major indices jumped higher at the opening bell and were trading up more than one percent.
The rebound lost some steam after Iranian media said there had been no talks between Tehran and Washington.
“It’s incredibly difficult to trade these markets when Trump is swinging between massive escalation and declaring peace/victory… but the market is happy for now that we do not enter a new phase of danger,” said Saxo UK investor strategist, Neil Wilson.
Analyst Patrick O’Hare at Briefing.com said the stock market “is reading between the lines of everything and is sensing an off-ramp moment, sooner rather than later.”
Ahead of Trump’s update, the International Energy Agency warned of the worst global energy crisis in decades.
Trump on Saturday gave Iran 48 hours to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping or face the destruction of its energy infrastructure.
The ultimatum came as the waterway — through which a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas flows — remained effectively closed.
Iran warned Hormuz “will be completely closed” should Trump act on his threat.
Observers have raised the prospect of surging inflation as oil prices remain far above pre-war levels despite Monday’s plunge.
This in turn could see central banks hike interest rates, potentially triggering a fresh cost-of-living crisis.
Disruption to fertiliser shipments has fanned concerns about global food security.
The prospect of higher borrowing costs has hammered the price of non-yielding gold but the precious metal recovered some of its losses after Trump’s latest comments, which also reversed the direction of the dollar.
As Wall Street opened for trade, the greenback dropped against the euro, British pound and yen, having earlier risen.
Yields on 10-year government bonds, which have been surging on inflation concerns, pulled back slightly.
“As government bonds… see yields rise, it makes gold less attractive given that gold pays no interest,” said Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club.
“Investors who have made losses elsewhere in volatile markets are selling to cover positions.”
Israel has said the Middle East war could last several more weeks, with its military expanding ground operations in Lebanon against Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.
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