Markets broadly rose Wednesday, after a continuation of Wall Street’s surge, but gains were restrained as investors await the penultimate tranche of US data before next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
Trading has eased ahead of important indications this week that may still have an impact on the central bank’s plans for the upcoming year, as a third consecutive interest rate cut has already been priced in.
The payrolls company ADP’s private jobs report, which is due later on Wednesday, and Friday’s personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index—the Fed’s favorite indicator of inflation—are the two most anticipated.
The likelihood of a December 10 cut is estimated by money markets to be about 90%, with three more cuts expected by the end of the next year.
The optimism has also been boosted by reports that President Donald Trump’s top economic adviser Kevin Hassett — a proponent of more reductions — is the frontrunner to take the helm at the Fed when Jerome Powell’s tenure ends in May.
But while a number of bank decision-makers have thrown their hat in the ring for a reduction, observers said there appeared to still be some differences on the policy board about the need to target the soft labour market or stubbornly high inflation.
And Andrew Brenner at NatAlliance Securities said this could lead to a “hawkish cut”.
IG market analyst Fabien Yip wrote: “Friday’s core PCE index represents the final major inflation gauge before the Fed’s December policy meeting.
“Any deviation could alter expectations regarding the Fed’s policy stance, particularly as the central bank weighs inflation persistence against a softening labour market. The release of personal income and spending data alongside the PCE will provide additional perspective on consumer resilience.”
While calls for a rate cut have been driven by worries over the jobs outlook and signs the world’s top economy was slowing, the National Retail Federation provided some early festive cheer by releasing an upbeat appraisal of the “Black Friday” holiday shopping weekend.
A record 202.9 million consumers shopped over the five-day stretch, topping estimates, the NRF said, adding that the reading “reflects a highly engaged consumer”.
All three main indexes on Wall Street ended in the green, and most of Asia followed suit.
Tokyo piled on more than one percent with Seoul, while Sydney, Singapore, Wellington, Taipei and Jakarta were also up.
Hong Kong, Shanghai and Manila dipped.
Bitcoin climbed back above $90,000, recovering from this week’s swoon that saw it lose almost 10 percent amid a risk-off start to the week for risk assets.
However, sentiment in the crypto sector remains soft after the unit plunged last month to as low as $80,550, having hit a record above $126,250 in October.
– Key figures at around 0230 GMT –
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.1 percent at 49,862.94 (break)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.7 percent at 25,922.79
Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.1 percent at 3,895.81
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 155.79 yen from 155.86 yen on Tuesday
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1636 from $1.1622
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.3225 from $1.3209
Euro/pound: DOWN at 87.98 pence from 88.00 pence
West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 0.2 percent at $58.53 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 0.2 percent at $62.33 per barrel
New York – Dow: UP 0.4 percent at 47,474.46 (close)
London – FTSE 100: FLAT at 9,701.80 (close)
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