Regardless of his desire, it is nearly a certain that US President Donald Trump will not win this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. However, who will?
At 11:00 am (0900 GMT) on Friday, the Norwegian Nobel Committee in Oslo will reveal the winner, ending the suspense.
The background is grim: since Sweden’s Uppsala University launched its global conflict database in 1946, there have never been as many armed conflicts involving at least one state globally as there are in 2024.
Experts expect that Trump will not be the committee’s choice, at least not this year, despite his repeated claims that he merits the renowned honor for resolving “eight conflicts.”
“No, it will not be Trump this year,” Swedish professor Peter Wallensteen, an expert on international affairs, told AFP.
“But perhaps next year? By then the dust will have settled around his various initiatives, including the Gaza crisis,” he added.
Numerous experts consider Trump’s “peacemaker” claims to be exaggerated and express concerns over the consequences of his “America First” policies.
“Beyond trying to broker peace for Gaza, we have seen policies that actually go against the intentions and what’s written in the will of (Alfred) Nobel, notably to promote international cooperation, the fraternity of nations and disarmament,” said Nina Graeger, who heads the Peace Research Institute of Oslo.
For Graeger, the list of Trump’s actions not aligned with the ideals of the Nobel Peace Prize is long.
Trump has withdrawn the US from international organisations and multilateral treaties, launched trade wars against allies and enemies alike, threatened to take Greenland from Denmark by force, ordered the National Guard into US cities and attacked universities’ academic freedoms as well as freedom of expression.
“We take the complete picture into account,” explained Jorgen Watne Frydnes, chair of the five-member committee awarding the peace prize.
“The whole organisation or the complete personality of that person matters, but what we first and foremost look at is what they have been actually achieving for the sake of peace,” he said.
