The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported on Friday that global oil demand growth is “anaemic,” with several countries experiencing declines, particularly those affected by US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.
Annual growth in oil demand dropped from 1.1 million barrels per day (mbd) in the first quarter of the year to a mere 0.5 mbd in the second quarter, as per the IEA’s monthly oil market review. Consumption in emerging markets was described as “particularly lacklustre.”
The IEA has lowered its forecast for oil-demand growth for 2025 as a whole to 0.7 mbd, marking “its lowest rate since 2009” excluding the period when the Covid pandemic severely impacted the global economy in 2020.
“Although it may be premature to attribute this slower growth to the detrimental impact of tariffs manifesting themselves in the real economy, the largest quarterly contractions occurred in countries that found themselves in the crosshairs of the tariff turmoil,” the IEA stated. The declines were notably sharp in China, Japan, South Korea, and Mexico, all of which have been targeted by Trump with stiff tariffs. Conversely, oil demand in Europe and other Asian emerging economies, also subject to Trump’s tariffs, demonstrated greater resilience.
The IEA projects that oil production will exceed demand in 2025, with output rising by 2.1 mbd to an average of 105.1 mbd, while demand is expected to average 103.7 mbd. For 2026, the agency anticipates demand rising by a tepid 0.72 mbd to 104.4 mbd, with supply expected to increase by 1.3 mbd to 106.4 mbd.
*
Email *
Website
