Thaksin Shinawatra, who was both adored and despised in nearly equal measure, revolutionized Thai politics in the early 2000s by winning the support of the rural populace through his populist programs.
However, this achievement came at a price: Thailand’s powerful elites and conservative establishment hated the rich politician and his family, viewing his leadership as corrupt, autocratic, and socially unstable.
After serving eight months of a one-year sentence for corruption while in office, the former premier was granted parole on Monday.
At any moment during the past 20 years, his legal and political struggles—from being overthrown by a coup to being found guilty of several crimes—could have put an end to his dynasty’s dominance in Thai politics.
But analysts say Thaksin remains the puppet master behind his Pheu Thai party, which suffered record losses at the polls this year but managed to join the new ruling coalition and land Thaksin’s nephew a cabinet position.
After his release, “Thaksin will take a more hands-on approach over Pheu Thai”, Southeast Asian politics expert Paul Chambers said.
But the 76-year-old is “too old to make a political comeback” as the formal party leader and would leave it to his family’s younger generation to be Pheu Thai’s public face, Chambers said.
Elected prime minister in 2001 and again in 2005, Thaksin was ousted by the army in 2006 and took himself into exile two years later, but never stopped commenting on national affairs.
He pledged repeatedly to return, despite being convicted on graft and abuse-of-power charges in his absence.
In August 2023, Thaksin finally fulfilled his promise, arriving in Bangkok to a hero’s welcome from his fans on the day Pheu Thai took office again.
Despite being detained right away and given an eight-year prison sentence, he was sent to a police hospital for medical reasons within hours.
King Maha Vajiralongkorn shortened Thaksin’s sentence to one year in a matter of days, and in February 2024, he returned to his Bangkok residence after apparently never seeing a jail cell.
However, the Supreme Court declared in September that he had not fulfilled his term and sentenced him to a year in prison.
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