According to the South Asian Network on Economic Modeling (Sanem), the twin shocks of the coronavirus epidemic and price spiral have caused food security to diminish, inequality to increase, and poverty to rise in Bangladesh over the past five years.
Additionally, the think tank claimed that residents of metropolitan areas had been affected more than those in rural ones.
The observation is based on a nationwide poll conducted in October and November of 2023 among over 9,000 households.
The urban higher poverty rate rose from 16.3 percent to 18.7 percent between 2018 and 2023, according to the headcount poverty rates measurement.
Prof. Selim Raihan, executive director of the Sanem, stated that the data differs from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) of the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS), which was released in 2022 and during a time when the price hike shock was less severe than it was in 2023.
During a session of the 7th Sanem Annual Economists’ Conference (SAEC) held at the Brac Centre Inn today, he made these remarks while presenting the survey results.
The rate of urban upper poverty, as reported by HIES 2022, was 14.7%.
According to the Sanem, it also rose to 18% in 2023 from 16.8% in 2018 using the multidimensional poverty index measuring method.
Nonetheless, due to a decline in rates in rural regions under both approaches, the national poverty rate remained essentially similar throughout the five-year period, coming in at 20.7 percent last year compared to 21.6 percent in 2018.
Between 1990 and 2016, Bangladesh reduced poverty at a pace of 3 percent annually. But the pandemic slowed this momentum, with many people losing their jobs and falling into poverty as a result of the widespread lockdowns put in place to stop the fatal virus’s spread.
According to Prof. Raihan, one possible reason for the current stalling of the effort to reduce poverty could be the price shock that occurred during the post-pandemic period.
Food insecurity increased across the board, with urban areas experiencing more severe cases than rural ones.
He described it as “very alarming.”
Approximately sixty percent of the households polled experienced difficulties with job and income during the epidemic.
Another significant obstacle was the cost of necessities, and two common coping mechanisms were borrowing and making involuntary dietary adjustments.
Over 85% of the households in the post-pandemic scenario report that the present price surge has negatively impacted their means of subsistence. In order to survive, about one-third of the households have altered their eating habits.
Inequality has also increased within the past five years.
According to the think tank, the percentage of young people who are not in work, education, or training, or NEETs, has gone up for both genders. People in the age range of 15 to 24 are known as NEETs.
According to the Sanem, in 2023, 15% of school-age children, or those between the ages of five and fifteen, were not enrolled in school, compared to 13% five years prior.
According to Sanem, one-third of migrant laborers who returned to their home country permanently lost their jobs in 2023.
Due to price shocks, the population’s access to healthcare also deteriorated last year: 7.2 percent of people could not get treatment in 2023, a significant increase from 1.7 percent in 2018.
In contrast to the government’s revised aim of 7.5 percent, the Consumer Price Index increased by 9.02 percent in FY23. The BBS stated that this was the highest average inflation rate in the previous twelve years.
Sanem suggested reorganizing social security assistance programs for the underprivileged and vulnerable poor, especially those living in cities, in light of the findings.
It also recommended increasing funding, creating rules specifically for the education sector, and providing more assistance to migrant workers who are returning home.
Sohela Nazneen, a senior research fellow at the University of Sussex’s Institute of Development Studies, chaired the session. Yugesh Pradhanang, a project manager for UNDP Bangladesh, also spoke.
