The decision by Russia on Monday to renege on a deal that allowed the sale of Ukrainian agricultural products through a secure Black Sea passageway amid the ongoing conflict is already having an impact far from the front lines of battle in Ukraine.
Ukraine’s grain exports have long provided food for East African nations frightened by climate change. Now, analysts say, a termination of the deal might result in higher consumer costs and put further strain on farmers and relief organizations that are already struggling to respond to problems like conflict and drought.
“We already know or can predict to a fair degree the impact the pausing of exports from that region to the rest of the world, especially East Africa and the Horn of Africa, will have on food prices,” said Debisi Araba, a food policy strategist and former managing director at the African Green Revolution Forum (AGRF).
“We should expect to see an inflationary pressure on the price of grain, especially on countries that are dependent on imports – where these grains are mostly staples feeding millions of people – pushing more people into vulnerability and insecurity,” he added.
