US President Joe Biden ran supporting a return to diplomacy with Iran but made clear he will not be rushed into re-entering a 2015 nuclear deal trashed by Donald Trump.
Nonetheless, a series of dates are coming up that will force the new US administration to show its hand.
The Biden administration has repeatedly said it will return to full compliance with the deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Agreement Plan of Action (JCPOA), once Iran does.
In other words, Biden will lift draconian sanctions imposed by Trump only after the clerical regime reverses nuclear steps it took to protest those sanctions.
Iran, likely mindful of the widespread hostility it faces in Washington, wants to ensure an end to sanctions before it backs down on steps away from the nuclear commitments, which included enriching uranium beyond agreed limits.
A key date comes on February 21 when Iran, under a law passed in December by the conservative-led parliament, is set to stop allowing intrusive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency unless there is an easing of US sanctions.
Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association in Washington, said that Iran can quickly undo most steps such as uranium enrichment.
“But the steps that are coming, I think, do pose a more significant risk and are more difficult to reverse,” she said.
While Iran has stopped short of threatening to expel IAEA inspectors, Davenport worried that any loss of access would fuel speculation that Tehran is engaged in illicit activities.
The risk “underscores the importance of restoring full compliance with the JCPOA before Iran takes these steps and develops this new knowledge,” she said.
Another key date is in June when Iran holds elections that could bring to power a hardliner to succeed President Hassan Rouhani, who bet on engagement with the West when Barack Obama was president only to see tensions soar under Trump.
