The Norwegian Nobel Committee will reveal the winner of the Nobel economics prize on Monday, capping the season. Experts in the areas of credit, government function, and wealth inequality are seen to be potential candidates.
At 11:45 am (0945 GMT), the renowned prize winner—American economist Claudia Goldin won it last year—will be revealed.
Goldin was one of the very few women to ever receive the prize, and she was acknowledged “for having advanced our understanding of women’s labour market outcomes.”
Only three women have been awarded as laureates since 1969: Goldin in 2023, her fellow countrywoman Elinor Ostrom in 2009, and French-American Esther Duflo in 2019.
“The general trend in society to attach greater importance to parity and diversity has broadened the research process,” Mikael Carlsson, professor of economics at Uppsala University in Sweden, told AFP.
“However, this is not the criteria taken into account when assessing whether a scientific contribution is worthy of a Nobel Prize,” he insisted.
His bet is that Japan’s Nobuhiro Kiyotaki and Britain’s John H. Moore will win for their work on how small shocks can affect economic cycles, or American Susan Athey for her work on market design.
But what criteria should be used to predict a Nobel winner?
The most apparent place to start, according to Magnus Henrekson of the Research Institute of Industrial Economics in Stockholm, is to examine the research interests of the committee that selects deserving candidates.
Its chairman is an expert in development economics, but given that the field has just received a prize, Henrekson expressed doubts that it would be recognised.
“I don’t think it’s likely that the same field will win the prize two years running,” Henrekson said.
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